The Week in Gold · Week 45, 2026 · Mon 2 Nov to Fri 6 Nov
Gold rose 5.04% on the week and made most of its range while New York slept. The US data on the calendar landed close to its own history, and the sharpest moves came at hours with nothing scheduled.
Mon 9 Nov to Fri 13 Nov · all times UTC
Three tracked US releases are on next week's calendar. Of these, the Consumer Price Index on Tuesday has the widest measured first hour: a median of $30.83 across 21 earlier prints.
Each dot below is one earlier print: the distance between gold's highest and lowest price in the 60 minutes after the release. The gold line marks the median, the shaded band holds the middle half of prints, and the grey line is the same clock hour on days with nothing scheduled.
These are measurements of the past, not forecasts. Any single print can land far outside its median.
Tue 10 Nov · 13:30 UTC
of the hour's range came in the first 15 minutes (median print)
the $16.01 a quiet hour covers at the same clock time
half of the earlier prints fell in this band
Wed 14 Oct 2026, wider than 95% of the prints before it
Thu 12 Nov · 13:30 UTC
of the hour's range came in the first 15 minutes (median print)
the $18.91 a quiet hour covers at the same clock time
half of the earlier prints fell in this band
Thu 5 Nov 2026, wider than 17% of the prints before it
Fri 13 Nov · 13:30 UTC
of the hour's range came in the first 15 minutes (median print)
the $16.44 a quiet hour covers at the same clock time
half of the earlier prints fell in this band
Thu 15 Oct 2026, wider than 85% of the prints before it
Release times: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; US Department of Labor; federal holidays: US Office of Personnel Management. Ranges: DTT price record, XAUUSD one-minute candles (Exness bid), the 60 minutes from each release time, every print since our record of that release began. Quiet hour: the same New York clock time on up to 20 earlier weekdays with nothing scheduled.
A normal day right now
Medians of the last 20 full trading days, by fixed UTC window. Asia covered $42.16 and Europe $25.32.
Source: DTT price record, XAUUSD one-minute candles (Exness bid). Median of the 20 full trading days Mon 12 Oct to Fri 6 Nov. Fixed UTC windows.
Reference prices
High, low and close of the week just closed.
Source: DTT price record, XAUUSD one-minute candles (Exness bid), Sun 1 Nov open to Fri 6 Nov close.
Last week against its medians
Nonfarm Payrolls came closest to its median, $34.70 in the first hour against $34.75. Initial Jobless Claims sat lowest, at $18.56, the 17th percentile of its 23 earlier prints.
Where each release's first-hour range ranked among that release's own earlier prints. Shaded: the middle half. Gold tick: their median.
Release times: Federal Reserve Bank of New York calendar; US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Ranges: DTT price record, XAUUSD one-minute candles (Exness bid), the 60 minutes from each release time; earlier prints since Jan 2025.
Between issues, the free DTT Telegram group posts gold key levels, the economic calendar and short trading lessons: dailytrading.tips/telegram
Week 45 · Mon 2 Nov to Fri 6 Nov
The tape
One candle per hour, from the Sunday open at 23:01 UTC to the Friday close at 21:57 UTC. Shaded: Asia hours. Triangles: tracked US releases.
Source: DTT price record, XAUUSD one-minute candles (Exness bid), grouped by hour. Times in UTC.
Gold opened at $3,885.16 on Sunday evening and never traded below $3,882.92. The high of $4,146.79 printed at 03:57 UTC on Thursday, and the week closed at $4,071.13. The median week of the past year covered $224.37; this one covered $263.88.
Explainer: Gold trading sessions, when XAUUSD actually moves
Sessions
Each dot is one day's session range. Gold line: the week's median. Grey line: the median of the 20 trading days before the week.
Source: DTT price record, XAUUSD one-minute candles (Exness bid). Fixed UTC session windows, not adjusted for daylight saving.
| Session | Mon 2 | Tue 3 | Wed 4 | Thu 5 | Fri 6 | 20-day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | $26.85 | $53.28 | $108.37 | $85.49 | $71.34 | $40.30 |
| Europe | $19.25 | $21.27 | $35.12 | $23.04 | $39.68 | $26.00 |
| US | $74.11 | $59.84 | $41.63 | $60.00 | $51.93 | $43.72 |
A session range is the high minus the low inside a fixed UTC window. The median Asia session covered $71.34 against $40.30 over the 20 trading days before the week.
Wednesday's Asia session alone covered $108.37, through the hours when US midterm election results were being counted. We note that as timing, not as a cause.
Daily range
High minus low of each UTC day, last 60 trading days. Gold bars: this week. Line: the median of the 20 days before each day.
Source: DTT price record, XAUUSD one-minute candles (Exness bid). UTC days, Monday to Friday; days with fewer than 1,000 one-minute candles are left out.
The other four days ranged from $76.03 to $85.49. The week's median day of $80.22 stood above the 20-day median of $60.93, and below the $91.24 median day of the past year.
Tool: size a position for the range gold is trading nowExplainer: Position sizing for gold's volatility
Hour by hour
Median range of each UTC hour, Mon 2 Nov to Fri 6 Nov. No bar: the daily market break.
Source: DTT price record, XAUUSD one-minute candles (Exness bid). Hours in UTC.
01:00 UTC is the Asia morning. 13:00 UTC holds the 13:30 UTC slot of this week's jobless claims and payrolls reports. The quietest full hour was 11:00 UTC, at $8.52.
Sharpest moves
The five largest five-minute moves of the week, one per half hour, by size. Gold bar: at a tracked US release.
Source: DTT price record, XAUUSD one-minute candles (Exness bid). Baseline: 5,472 non-overlapping five-minute windows of the 20 trading days before the week. Release times: Federal Reserve Bank of New York calendar; US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
| Start (UTC) | Five-minute move | Tracked release |
|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov, 13:26 | +$32.26 | None |
| Mon 2 Nov, 13:37 | +$23.85 | None |
| Thu 5 Nov, 15:50 | -$23.09 | None |
| Fri 6 Nov, 13:26 | -$22.66 | Nonfarm Payrolls |
| Thu 5 Nov, 14:41 | -$21.49 | None |
The largest, +$32.26 from 13:26 UTC on Tuesday, matched none of the 15 US releases we track. Over the 20 trading days before the week, the median five-minute move was $1.41 and only one window in a hundred moved more than $9.13.
Positioning
Managed money net long (long minus short), COMEX gold futures, contracts, weekly over three years. Grey line: the three-year median, 130,639.
Source: CFTC, Disaggregated Commitments of Traders, futures only, COMEX gold. Positions as of 3 November 2026.
Managed money is the CFTC's group for hedge funds and commodity trading advisers. Positions are counted on Tuesday and published on Friday, so the 3 November figure predates Wednesday's wide day. Net long changed by -1,948 contracts on the week; the three-year high was 219,029 in September 2024.
This describes where positioning stands, not where price goes next.
Yields and the dollar
Correlation of daily changes over a rolling 60 trading days.
Gold and the 10-year real yieldGold and the broad dollar index
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15 and H.10) via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; DTT price record.
The real yield is the 10-year Treasury yield after expected inflation. Minus one would mean gold and the series moved in opposite directions every day; zero means no relationship.
The real yield ended the week at 2.63%, +3 basis points, and the broad dollar index at 121.88, +0.18%. The link to real yields is weaker than at the start of our record in July 2024, when it read minus 0.48.
On the desk
25 desk calls closed this week, 14 of them in profit.
The desk's recently settled calls, stop-outs included, are listed in the live signal log: dailytrading.tips/signals
Closing read
This was a week where the clock mattered more than the calendar. Gold added 5.04%, Asia made the range, and the scheduled US releases moved price about as much as they usually do.
Next week we will report how gold's first hour after Tuesday's Consumer Price Index compared with its $30.83 median, and whether Asia's share of the range held.
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